05 Aug

Baby referral prediction: Magic 8 Ball says “reply hazy …”

Thanks China Adoption Forecast site. That narrows it down to sometime between September and next May!


REPLY HAZY TRY AGAIN

Our prediction for LID 2005-08-30:

Our best guess - a weighted average of recent CCAA velocities, guessing that CCAA will perform about as well in the future as they are performing now, but might return to previous trends: 2006-10-25

That’s our best guess for when you might receive your referral. For completeness, we can also show the largest likely range for your referral, based on the CCAA either going as fast as it has ever gone, or as slow as it has ever gone. The CCAA probably won’t do either of these things (go as fast or as slow as it has ever gone before, and stay at that speed), so your referral is very likely to come somewhere in between these dates: 2006-09-08 to 2007-04-20. Note: complaints about how this range is unrealistic will be ignored. We just told you these dates are a minimum and a maximum, not a likely outcome.

Since China generally sends out referrals in a batch about once per month, your referral date could easily vary +/- one month depending on whether you just get included or just get missed in a particular batch.